TOWER GROVE?? The current issue of Baseball America arrived at my doorstep over the weekend, and a few pages before the magazine revealed its top 10 prospects for the St. Louis Cardinals, there is an interesting chart that addresses something that's perhaps more important.
What are the sources of these prospects?
Each year, the editors at BA ask the correspondents for their Prospect Handbook -- of which I am one -- to not only help select the top 10s and top 30s for every team, but to catalog how those players arrived. The top 30 I submitted to BA for consideration, for example, included 29 homegrown players and one prospect acquired via trade. In that 29, 14 were from college and seven were drafted out of high school. Four of the 30 players came through international scouting.
Two of those four rank in the Cardinals' top five: outfielder Oscar Taveras, who is No. 1 in the Cardinals' system, and pitcher Carlos Martinez, whose rank will be revealed below.
In Friday's Post-Dispatch, I took a look at how the Cardinals have re-established a presence in Latin America and whether they are now set to take the next step in their international efforts: pursuing a free agent from, say, Cuba or one of the Asian pro leagues. Through the course of reporting that story, I learned several things that I passed along into that article -- the attempt, for example, to mirror the domestic scouting process in their international regions -- and I ran into recurring comments, ones stressed most strongly by general manager John Mozeliak.
He said several times during an interview last Thursday that the goal was to get stronger in Latina America, to "plunge deeper" in the Caribbean first before looking into other international waters. His point that he said was that while the Cardinals have been able to acquire some prospects with high Q-ratings -- Taveras, Martinez, De Leon, Rondon, Rodriguez ... to name four -- depth was still lacking. He saw a need to increase the team's depth of talent from Latin America.
Enter the current issue of Baseball America.
Using the catalogs compiled by the correspondents, BA put together a chart on how many international signings each club had in its Top 30 Prospects list. Here it is:
Rangers -- 15
Tigers --14
Indians, Mets -- 12
Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox, Royals -- 11
Pirates -- 10
Braves, Reds -- 9
Twins, Yankees, Mariners -- 8
Nationals, Phillies -- 7
Angels, Padres -- 6
Marlins, Orioles, Rockies -- 5
Cardinals, Dodgers, Athletics, Giants, Rays -- 4
Brewers, D-Backs, White Sox -- 3
Astros -- 2
?
"The Cardinals," the article goes on to say at its conclusion, "are down toward the bottom of the list, but while they may not have as much depth as other teams, they have the best Dominican position prospect in baseball (Oscar Taveras) and one of the best international pitching prospects in the game (Carlos Martinez). Few teams can match that type of impact talent from the international ranks."
The Cardinals also have a fifth prospect in limbo right now. Alex Reyes, a teenage pitcher from the Dominican, has agreed to a deal mentioned in the story linked to above. When the righty has his paperwork approved by Major League Baseball -- and that's expected soon -- his deal will be finalized and he would likely rank in the top 30.
Still, the Rangers have acquired half of their top 30 from international signings. The Tigers have acquired 14 of 30 from international realms.
Why pick out those two?
Well, they've won the past three American League pennants and not only does that mean they've been competitive recently, they've also picked lower in the draft than say Houston or Seattle. The international game is where money and scouting talked not standings. Now that a cap has been fixed on what teams can spend on international bonuses, scouting becomes increasingly important. These are some of the main reasons that Mozeliak repeatedly said that his staff "is focused on getting the Dominican Republic up and running 100 percent."
When it comes to tracing the sources of the other prospects in the Cardinals' top 30, the 2012 draft wins.
Three players taken in June cracked the top 10.
A fourth was recommended by yours truly for the top 10.
A total of seven 2012 draft picks are expected to appear in the top 30, and an eighth, shortstop Alex Mejia, would have been considered for the list had he not lost a big portion of his pro debut to a knee injury.
I'm always hesitant to have such a new-pick-heavy list. But we can get to that later. Here's the Cardinals' Top 10 Prospects as they appear in the current issue of Baseball America, on newsstands now:
- Oscar Taveras, OF
- Shelby Miller, RHP
- Carlos Martinez, RHP
- Trevor Rosenthal*, RHP
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Michael Wacha, RHP
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
- Carson Kelly, 3B
- Stephen Piscotty, OF
* Rosenthal remains eligible for the list because he did not surpass the innings or appearance limits for rookie classification. Joe Kelly and Matt Carpenter are not eligible for the top 10 because they are not considered rookies coming into 2013.
I collect and report and then write a lot of the information that appears with each prospect in the magazine and the Prospect Handbook, which drops later this month. The final list is a cooperative of my views with the editors of BA, including Jim Callis, who has been doing this a lot longer and a lot better than correspondents like me. We had our debates this winter about the top 10 and who belongs in the top 30.
It's a lot different than a few years ago when we would struggle to find a difference between prospect No. 12 and prospect No. 28, and how neither of them would rank in the top 30 for a dozen other organizations.
Callis has already called the Cardinals' system the best in baseball several times in the past month. It's possible that when the magazine's rankings of overall systems is released later this month, the Cardinals will be No. 1 overall.
They were No. 30 -- last -- as recently as 2005.
In past Bird Land entries, I've outlined some of the things that I prioritize when it comes to ranking prospects. I've (over)simplified it into the four Ps of prospects ...
PROXIMITY -- As in, how close are they to the majors? For me, this would, as an example, put lefty John Gast ahead of, say, lefty Tim Cooney because one is in Class AAA and the other was just drafted.
POTENTIAL -- As in, what is their future impact on the majors? Are they a potential everyday player, an All-Star? Or, are they a utility fielder on the rise? This is the prong that has held a fourth outfielder, like Adron Chambers, back in the rankings even though his proximity is high.
PRODUCTION -- As in ... well, self-explanatory. What have they done in the minors? When it comes to the 2012 draft picks, this is the category that, for example, helps a hitter like Piscotty while outfielder James Ramsey, who was placed several levels higher, struggled in his debut. This is the elixir to the dream-on factor. At some point, a prospect does have to put his tools to good use, no?
POSITION -- As in, how premium of a position does the prospect play? This could be the deciding factor between a prospect who will remain a starter and on who might drift toward the bullpen. A shortstop who is going to remain a shortstop, for example, has more value than one who is going to become a left fielder in the future.
To the four-Ps the folks at Baseball America also factor in a fifth:
PICK -- As in, where were they drafted (or, in the international sense, how much were they signed for)? This makes sense. This is where rubber meets road for the teams. A team is going to take the player it believes is the best possible prospect higher in the draft, with few exceptions. It would seem odd to a few months after the draft rank a seventh-round pick ahead of a first-round pick. That would take some explaining.
As you can see, the player who fits the first four-Ps the best is Taveras, the Big O. Taveras has proximity (ETA 2013), potential (middle-order hitter), production (triple-crown threat at Class AA), and position (we'll see how long the CF run lasts).
Any rankings of future production are going to be flawed and they always invite armchair criticism. Hey, we could all accurately go back today and rank the Cardinals' top prospects in 2005. Hindsight is obvious, which is why readers aren't interested in it. The other part of these rankings that is imperfect is that players are only compared to players within the system. It is always my preference to compare prospects against larger pools -- because the Cardinals' No. 1 may not be in the top five for another organization, because the Cardinals' No. 15 may not rank in the top 30 for another organization. It's a false ranking in that sense because it inflates players in inferior systems. Please always keep that in mind when you view top 10s.
To combat that as best I can, I try answer the four-Ps for every prospect and then sort them for my list accordingly.
Wong, who is No. 5, has proximity over Wacha, who is No. 6. The infielder also has had more pro experience, so he arguably has the edge with production, too. Wacha's debut was impressive and his position (starting pitcher) has more value than Wong's (second base), especially when you look at the salaries starters are commanding. Their potential could be the tipping point a year from now when it's time to rank the top 10 for 2014.
That is, if they are both eligible.
There will be a chat about the Cardinals' Top 10 Prospects and the top 30 later this week at Baseball America's web site. But, why wait until then? I'll keep tabs on the comments here and answer whatever questions come out of them ...
***
Taveras and righty Seth Maness will be presented their awards as the organization's player and pitcher of the year, respectively, on Sunday at the annual dinner hosted by the St. Louis BBWAA Chapter. More information about the dinner can be found at the chapter's Facebook page. We're so modern.
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